UFC Charlotte takes place early Saturday in North Carolina. 11 fights are on tap with plenty of name value and legends of the game. This appears to be a tougher card to find value but one that could payoff dearly. Let us break it down and find any spots that stand out.
Last Card Record: 6-6
2023 Overall Record: 100-79-4
(135 LBS) Jessica-Rose Clark (11-8) VS Tainara Lisboa (5-2)
Lisboa makes her debut with a -110 pickem line against the veteran Clark. Lisboa has looked good in her wins but has not beaten good competition. UFC veteran Norma Dumont made quick work of Lisboa in her biggest test to date. Clark has not looked good lately either but should have the wrestling edge. This is a difficult fight to call with so many question marks so best bet is to pass.
PICK: Jessica-Rose Clark (-110) | BEST BET: N/A
(170 LBS) Gabe Green (11-4) VS Bryan Battle (8-2)
A very interesting matchup comes next with Green being a -135 favorite and Battle returning +115. This is a matchup that should be very competitive on the feet with both men landing nicely. The big hole realized in Battle’s game recently is his takedown defense. Green is by no means an elite grappler, but should have the advantage in this area and that should be enough to win this fight.
PICK: Gabe Green (-135) | BEST BET: Gabe Green ML (-135)
(125 LBS) Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2) VS Mandy Bohm (7-2)
Jobs are likely on the line in this matchup. Kim is a sizable -230 favorite with Bohm sitting +190. Neither of these women have achieved much UFC success thus far and will be looking for a statement win. Kim has gotten some close fights and honestly should be the better fighter in this one. Bohm has not offered much of anything to be impressed with and while you can not fully trust Kim at this price, she feels like the right side.
PICK: Ji Yeon Kim (-230) | BEST BET: N/A
(140 LBS) Cody Stamann (21-5-1) VS Douglas Silva de Andrade (28-5)
Stamann gets the favorite title at -150 with DSA coming in +130. Stamann is a well rounded guy who brings in a solid wrestling attack. His likely path in this one is utilizing volume and ground control to neutralize the firepower of Silva. DSA has finishing ability in all areas and should be the more damaging fighter. This fight is as close as the line suggests, but there is some value on DSA as an underdog in a very winnable matchup.
PICK: Douglas Silva de Andrade (+130) | BEST BET: Douglas Silva de Andrade ML (+130)
(265 LBS) Karl Williams (8-1) VS Chase Sherman (16-11)
A rebooking that should hopefully actually happen this time around. Williams is a -425 favorite with Sherman being a +320 dog or so. Nothing has really changed to shift our belief in how this matchup will go. Williams has not finished anyone in the UFC but that likely changes here. Neither man has great cardio and the finish line is still playable.
PICK: Karl Williams (-425) | BEST BET: Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
(170 LBS) Matt Brown (23-19) VS Court McGee (21-11)
The battle of two grizzled vets will be a show for the fans. McGee is a -215 favorite and Brown is a +175 underdog. Logic would tell us McGee can wrestle his way to a decision, but he is known to give fans exciting fights when given the opportunity. If McGee decides to make this a brawl, Brown has plenty of chances to win. This can go many different ways, but there will be chances for Matt Brown to give another solid win.
PICK: Matt Brown (+175) | BEST BET: Matt Brown ML (+175)
(170 LBS) Alex Morono (22-8) VS Tim Means (32-14-1)
Morono comes with a -220 line as Means comes in +180. Both men need to get back in the win column here but the youth will largely favor Morono. Means is likely in his final days in the UFC and has had a very solid career. Morono is the guy in his prime and was looking really good up until his last loss. Means will bring a toughness not many have but Morono should be able to be more active and more damaging. He seems like decent enough parlay material but the straight up price is a little wide.
PICK: Alex Morono (-220) | BEST BET: N/A
(205 LBS) Carlos Ulberg (7-1) VS Ihor Potieria (19-3)
Expect fireworks in this one. Ulberg is a massive -425 favorite while Ihor returns +325. Both of these men have lots of finishes and have been finished themselves. Ulberg is the side here but the line is way too wide to trust. Ulberg will have much crisper striking and should not have to worry about the wrestling here. It is MMA and anything can happen which makes the Under 2.5 rounds feel safer (along with a better price) than any bet on Ulberg.
PICK: Carlos Ulberg (-425) | BEST BET: N/A
(170 LBS) Daniel Rodriguez (17-3) VS Ian Machado Garry (11-0)
The future Ian Garry gets massive love with a -300 line versus the +240 DRod. Garry has faced a lot of adversity in the UFC but still is undefeated. Garry is no doubt skilled but his defense looks like it may cost him very soon. DRod will no doubt be his toughest test to date and has plenty of value at this price. DRod is very tough and has power himself. His boxing and grappling defense should be enough to at least make this a razor close fight. Garry will need to mind his defense and score big to justify this line here.
PICK: Daniel Rodriguez (+240) | BEST BET: Daniel Rodriguez ML (+240)
(205 LBS) Anthony Smith (36-17) VS Johnny Walker (20-7)
A high level matchup at 205 takes place here with both men sitting -110. The odds seem right here as this is very tough to call. Johnny Walker is the ultimate kill or be killed type of fighter while Smith is much more calculated and technical. Either of these men could get subbed or knocked out at any point making this such a fun matchup. Our best guess is Smith uses his fight IQ to survive early and finish Walker later on.
PICK: Anthony Smith (-110) | BEST BET: N/A
(265 LBS) Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-4) VS Jailton Almeida (18-2)
The main event comes with a huge shot for rising prospect Jailton Almeida. This is his sink or swim matchup and he is a -550 favorite. Rozenstruik is a whopping +380 underdog and we all know the power this man possesses. The big problem here is the massive humongous wrestling/grappling edge Almeida will have. Almeida wastes no time getting this fight down and once it does, the fight usually doesn’t last much longer. Rozenstruik will always have a shot with his power, but this will require a miracle. Almeida seems safe, but the under 1.5 feels really nice in this one.
PICK: Jailton Almeida (-550) | BEST BET: Under 1.5 Rounds (-210)
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